What's happening in the long range outlook? It is something that you've been waiting on all summer! Our first real cold front is expected to move through the Magnolia area this upcoming weekend, dropping high temperatures into the middle 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. The following work week, a stronger cold front should push through knocking down high temperatures into the middle to upper 70s and overnight lows in the middle to lower 50s!
Above I've included a temperature anomaly map which shows where you can possibly see above or below normal temperatures. The above normal temperatures can be seen in the orange shaded areas, while the below normal temperatures can be seen in the blue shaded areas. Remember, normal highs for this time of year are in the lower 80s. So, we will continue to watch and keep an eye on this forecast and keep y'all updated on any changes to this outlook.
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This weekend, we may see our first real cold front of the season knocking down high temperatures to the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s for most of the region. The front is not as strong as we thought it would be because a blocking high pressure system will be stronger than we anticipated, which will lead the front to weaken a little as it approaches. The front that is coming in next weekend will also bring the chance for lower humidity as it will switch around the wind direction from the south to out of the north. Precipitation chances however still appear to be low as rainfall will be on hold this weekend.
However as we go through this week, temperatures will still remain warm with readings in the low to middle 90s through early October. But, as mentioned above, luckly there is still a chance for cooler temperatures in the extended forecast! Share to spread the word! We are still going to be warm through the rest of September, however some computer models are beginning to hint at some significant heat relief in the next couple of weeks or so. The models have been fairly consistent in supporting longer-range data which shows the possibility for a stronger cold front to plow through the Ark-La-Tex beginning the end of next week and part of next weekend. Check your weather apps also, as they should begin to catch on over the next couple of days and start to drop temperatures as next weekend approaches. For now however, I've added a map below which shows significantly cooler temperatures like I talked about above during the middle of next week. Computer models typically show about 5-10 degrees cooler than the real feel temperature, so add about 10 degrees on to this map, but the gist of the story is still there. Our first real cold front is expected during the latter half of next week.
Stay tuned, as we will continue to track It as it possibly approaches. Have a great evening!
The latest computer models suggest that the remants of Tropical Depression Imelda could move up to our region and provide the area with some beneficial rainfall on Friday this week. Our current thinking aligns with the North American computer model which pushes the rainfall into our area during the afternoon hours on Friday. This will likely increase as you head west towards the Texarkana metro area, with that area possibly seeing in the neighborhood of between 2-4 inches of rainfall. The Columbia county area could possibly see anywhere between an inch of rain to three inches of rain, with the amounts diminishing quickly as you head off to the east into central and eastern Arkansas.
These rainfall totals will also knock down temperatures into the low to middle 80s for highs on Friday and overnight lows dropping into the lower to middle 70s and potentially some upper 60s for some. As of right now, the NWS has yet to offer a Flash Flood Watch for our area, and we do not at this time anticipate them to issue that type of watch. East Texas could see that watch issued with anywhere from 4-6 inches expected in the Longview area, and 3-4 inches expected for Mount Pleasent. Just a reminder that these forecasts are not concrete at this time and could likely change through the next day or so. Stay tuned, and I will continue to monitor the forecast and post any updates to this forecast as we move closer to Friday. Below, I've included a graphic which tells you which day this week has the best chance for rainfall. The chances really improve towards Friday, and taper off as we head towards our second home game vs. Harding (Saturday night). PLEASE SHARE THIS POST TO SPREAD THE WORD! **Graphic below are in percentages, not temperatures. Stay tuned! |
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April 2020
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