Good afternoon everyone, we are looking at the computer models to see signs about the upcoming severe weather odds here in southwest and south central Arkansas. There are indications that there could be a severe weather outbreak anytime during the morning hours and the afternoon hours on Sunday. As of right now, Columbia County and Magnolia are int the enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms which on the individual SPC threat scale is a three out of five. This means that severe weather is likely, meaning the chance for isolated tornadoes are there (with, in the Storm Prediction Center's wording), the potential for long-track, strong tornadoes are possible in the southeast Arkansas region in cities like Monticello, Hamburg and so on. This however does not guarantee they will see a tornado but just that the odds are higher in these specific locations.
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The National Weather Service has issued a Slight Risk as in a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms here in the southwest Arkansas and northeast Louisiana areas. The threats are mainly during the afternoon hours on Tuesday as a weather system will push through the region bringing the increased risk of severe weather. The main concerns from this severe weather event are damaging winds in excess of 60-70 miser per hour along with flash flooding in storms that train over a certain area for a prolonged period of time. The tornado risk is really low, however the threat cannot be completely ruled out as with any specific thunderstorm event.
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Winter might not be 100% over yet folks. The latest GFS suite of models is indicating that the potential is there for accumulating snowfall towards the second weekend of February. This means that there is the chance that the storm system affecting the northeastern states could potentially have some back edge precipitation as its moving out of our area impact us.
For now the concern is low and this is particularly pretty far out at this time, so we will continue to keep an eye on any of the potential changes for now. IF this forecast were to hold true - the area could potentially see 2-3 inches of snowfall around or between the February 5-February 7th weekend. Please consider sharing this post to help spread the word on this potential.
Tornado Watch Issued until 2:00 AM
The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado WATCH for the entirety of the southwest Arkansas and the Magnolia region including the Southern Arkansas University campus. Thunderstorms are forming to the west of the state line at this moment and moving through the Dallas Ft. Worth metroplex. These storms should hopefully be out of the region by 2 in the morning as that is when the weather watch is set to expire. For now though, stay tuned and make sure to have a weather ready plan whenever a severe weather warning gets issued for your area.
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Welp, we are expecting our first real significant severe weather event of the year this afternoon however mainly past once the sun sets in the region.The National Weather Service has upgraded our moderate risk (4/5) on the severe weather threat scale to include the majority of the SW Arkansas region increasing it from the earlier enhanced risk which on the threat scale was only a (3/5). We can expect the first batch of isolated severe storms to possibly move through between 7-11 this evening, and the main severe weather event to move through between 9 pm this evening and 2 am in the morning on Saturday.
Main threats: With this severe weather episode, we are expecting anywhere from a few tornadoes, to damaging winds in excess of 80 miles per hour in the strongest storms that form. Large hail will also be a main concern with the majority of the storms (it could be as big as half dollar size in diameter). Flash flooding is also a main concern when storm train over an area for a longer amount of time. Also, lightning is a big concern during any weather event. This could possibly spark fires, or harm humans. Remember, when you hear thunder to head indoors. We will continue to provide updates throughout the morning on these severe weather chances and would not be surprised to see a Tornado Watch issued for the area some time during the midday hours. We'll continue to keep an eye to. the sky and post any updates. ***Please share this post to indicate to us that you saw it! Thanks, it helps us out.***
The National Weather Service has issued a "Moderate Risk" (which on the threat scale is a 4/5) for strong to severe thunderstorms, implying that this could potentially be bigger than we previously anticipated the event could be. The Magnolia region and far southwest Arkansas has been included in the high risk outlook. Main concerns with the thunderstorms that move through the area tomorrow afternoon include the real threat for tornadoes, damaging winds in excess of 80 miles per hour or higher, hail possibly higher than quarter to half dollar size in diameter and the potential for flash flooding in some parts of the area where storms train.
***Just because the rest of the state went to orange just means the risk area for our area has increased because of the issuing of a higher alert level, it does not indicate a lower threat risk*** Timing: At this particular point in time the main concern window for tomorrow is expected to be between 8pm to 2 am early Saturday morning. Stay tuned, and please share this post to help spread the word about the potential severe weather outbreak.
The National Weather Service is continuing to monitor a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms moving through the area this coming Friday afternoon and during the evening hours. Main chances for the severe weather include but are not limited too, a chance for a few isolated spin-up tornadoes, damaging large hail (mainly quarter to half dollar in diameter), damaging wind gusts in excess of 70-80 miles per hour), the potential for flash flooding with storms that ponder over an area for a certain amount of time.
General timing for the line of thunderstorms to move through is between 8pm Friday -1 am on Saturday morning, so make sure you have a way to receive weather warnings if they are issued for your area, just incase internet is not available. Please share this post to spread the word!
We are continuing to monitor the developing situation for severe thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday morning. Make sure you have a method of receiving severe weather alerts as they are issued by reporting agencies. The storms are expected to move through as a squall line from west to east. The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center has issued a Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms which mean that the tornado risk is medium on a low to high scale.
Storms are also capable of producing very strong damaging wind gusts (possibly upwards of 70 to 80 miles per hour) and quarter to half dollar size hail. Flash flooding is also a concern with any storms that potentially train over a certain area for a lengthy period of time. Please share this post to spread the word of the concern and stick with us as we continue to monitor the changing weather conditions for this upcoming severe weather episode.
We are beginning to follow a significant severe weather episode for this Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. This will be because a strong cold front will pushing through the region bringing with it colder conditions on Saturday with daytime highs in the lower to middle 40s and overnight lows dipping into the upper 20s.
The green area has the highest chance at seeing heavier showers and thunderstorms this Thursday into Friday and early Saturday morning here in the Ark-La-Tex region. We are anticipating anywhere between 2-4 inches of rain depending on where you are located. At this time, we are not anticipating severe thunderstorms however just beneficial heavy rainfall. We look for the brunt of the rains to start falling between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. We'll keep an eye on the forecast to see if there are any changes in the future but as of right now this is getting pretty concrete.
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April 2020
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