URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 707 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Extreme southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms over eastern Oklahoma will track across the watch area through the evening. The strongest cells along the line will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Springfield MO to 40 miles west southwest of De Queen AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040.
0 Comments
We're keeping an eye on the future computer models that are suggesting a possible downpour event to start the new year as well as cooler temperatures towards the second week of January. For now though, this is based off of the GFS computer model which is the American computer model that is more reliable when it comes to this kind of weather event. The computer models will change over time, so we'll continue to keep an eye on this as things change and progress. Stay tuned, and please share this post to help spread the word!
UPDATE: Below Normal Temperatures are Expected to Continue; Rain Chances to Return on Monday10/17/2019 ![]()
1We are expecting below normal temperatures to continue for the foreseeable future as high temperatures will continue to be in the low to mid 70s over the next couple of days. There will be a brief warming trend, back up to close to 80 on Sunday, but then temperatures will drop off as our next strong cold front pushes through the area Monday afternoon, knocking high temperatures down to the middle 60s on Tuesday and overnight low temperatures once again falling into the middle 40s.
Thunderstorm chances will return on Monday this coming week as we could see an 80% chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms along our cold front. The latest American model (GFS) is suggesting anywhere between an additional 1-2 inches for our area after we have already seen 3-4 inches area-wide from the last rainfall event. Please share this post to help spread the word!
What's happening in the long range outlook? It is something that you've been waiting on all summer! Our first real cold front is expected to move through the Magnolia area this upcoming weekend, dropping high temperatures into the middle 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. The following work week, a stronger cold front should push through knocking down high temperatures into the middle to upper 70s and overnight lows in the middle to lower 50s!
Above I've included a temperature anomaly map which shows where you can possibly see above or below normal temperatures. The above normal temperatures can be seen in the orange shaded areas, while the below normal temperatures can be seen in the blue shaded areas. Remember, normal highs for this time of year are in the lower 80s. So, we will continue to watch and keep an eye on this forecast and keep y'all updated on any changes to this outlook.
This weekend, we may see our first real cold front of the season knocking down high temperatures to the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s for most of the region. The front is not as strong as we thought it would be because a blocking high pressure system will be stronger than we anticipated, which will lead the front to weaken a little as it approaches. The front that is coming in next weekend will also bring the chance for lower humidity as it will switch around the wind direction from the south to out of the north. Precipitation chances however still appear to be low as rainfall will be on hold this weekend.
However as we go through this week, temperatures will still remain warm with readings in the low to middle 90s through early October. But, as mentioned above, luckly there is still a chance for cooler temperatures in the extended forecast! Share to spread the word! We are still going to be warm through the rest of September, however some computer models are beginning to hint at some significant heat relief in the next couple of weeks or so. The models have been fairly consistent in supporting longer-range data which shows the possibility for a stronger cold front to plow through the Ark-La-Tex beginning the end of next week and part of next weekend. Check your weather apps also, as they should begin to catch on over the next couple of days and start to drop temperatures as next weekend approaches. For now however, I've added a map below which shows significantly cooler temperatures like I talked about above during the middle of next week. Computer models typically show about 5-10 degrees cooler than the real feel temperature, so add about 10 degrees on to this map, but the gist of the story is still there. Our first real cold front is expected during the latter half of next week.
Stay tuned, as we will continue to track It as it possibly approaches. Have a great evening!
The latest computer models suggest that the remants of Tropical Depression Imelda could move up to our region and provide the area with some beneficial rainfall on Friday this week. Our current thinking aligns with the North American computer model which pushes the rainfall into our area during the afternoon hours on Friday. This will likely increase as you head west towards the Texarkana metro area, with that area possibly seeing in the neighborhood of between 2-4 inches of rainfall. The Columbia county area could possibly see anywhere between an inch of rain to three inches of rain, with the amounts diminishing quickly as you head off to the east into central and eastern Arkansas.
These rainfall totals will also knock down temperatures into the low to middle 80s for highs on Friday and overnight lows dropping into the lower to middle 70s and potentially some upper 60s for some. As of right now, the NWS has yet to offer a Flash Flood Watch for our area, and we do not at this time anticipate them to issue that type of watch. East Texas could see that watch issued with anywhere from 4-6 inches expected in the Longview area, and 3-4 inches expected for Mount Pleasent. Just a reminder that these forecasts are not concrete at this time and could likely change through the next day or so. Stay tuned, and I will continue to monitor the forecast and post any updates to this forecast as we move closer to Friday. Below, I've included a graphic which tells you which day this week has the best chance for rainfall. The chances really improve towards Friday, and taper off as we head towards our second home game vs. Harding (Saturday night). PLEASE SHARE THIS POST TO SPREAD THE WORD! **Graphic below are in percentages, not temperatures. Stay tuned! With Tropical Depression Barry in its weakening phases, by 1:00 am tomorrow morning, the system center will move about 30 miles just to the west of Magnolia tomorrow morning. Current winds are sustained between 35 and 40 miles per hour. This however, is not the final advisory that this storm is going to get. It would not surprise us if some heavier rain showers move through the region later this evening and during the overnight hours. Also, the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for areas to the east of Columbia county. Stay tuned!
|
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. Archives
April 2020
Categories |